Posted:February 23, 2016

AI3 PulseArticle Offers a Balanced View on AI and the Singularity

Possibly because we are sentient, intelligent beings, discussions about artificial intelligence often occupy extremes of alarm, potential or hyperbole. What makes us unique as humans, at least in our degree of intelligence, can be threatened when we start granting machines similar capabilities. Be it Skynet, Lt. Commander Data, military robots, or the singularity, it is pretty easy to grab attention by touting AI as the greatest threat to civilization, or the dawning of a new age of super intelligence.

To be sure, we are seeing remarkable advances in things like intelligent personal assistants that answer our spoken questions, or services that can automatically recognize and tag our images, or many, many other applications. It is also appropriate to raise questions about autonomous intelligence and its possible role in warfare [1] or other areas of risk or harm. AI is undoubtedly an area of technology innovation on the rise. It will also be a constant in human affairs into the future.

That is why a recent article by Toby Walsh on The Singularity May Never Be Near [2] is worth a read. Though only four pages long, it presents a nice historical backdrop on AI and why artificial intelligence may not unfold as many suspect. As he summarizes the article:

There is both much optimism and pessimism around artificial intelligence (AI) today. The optimists are investing millions of dollars, and even in some cases billions of dollars into AI. The pessimists, on the other hand, predict that AI will end many things: jobs, warfare, and even the human race. Both the optimists and the pessimists often appeal to the idea of a technological singularity, a point in time where machine intelligence starts to run away, and a new, more intelligent species starts to inhabit the earth. If the optimists are right, this will be a moment that fundamentally changes our economy and our society. If the pessimists are right, this will be a moment that also fundamentally changes our economy and our society. It is therefore very worthwhile spending some time deciding if either of them might be right.

[1] Samuel Gibbs, 2015. “Musk, Wozniak and Hawking Urge Ban on Warfare AI and Autonomous Weapons,” The Guardian, 27 July 2015.
[2] Toby Walsh, 2016. “The Singularity May Never Be Near,” arXiv:1602.06462, 20 Feb 2016.

Posted by AI3's author, Mike Bergman Posted on February 23, 2016 at 1:21 pm in Artificial Intelligence, Pulse | Comments (0)
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Posted:February 16, 2016

AI3 PulseTechnical Debts Accrue from Dependencies, Adapting to Change, and Maintenance

Machine learning has entered a golden age of open source toolkits and much electronic and labeled data upon which to train them. The proliferation of applications and relative ease of standing up a working instance — what one might call “first twitch” — have made machine learning a strong seductress.

But embedding machine learning into production environments that can be sustained as needs and knowledge change is another matter. The first part of the process means that data must be found (and labeled if using supervised learning) and then tested against one or more machine learners. Knowing how to use and select features plus systematic ways to leverage knowledge bases are essential at this stage. Reference (or “gold”) standards are also essential as parameters and feature sets are tuned for the applicable learners. Only then can one produce enterprise-ready results.

Those set-up efforts are the visible part of the iceberg. What lies underneath the surface, as a group of experienced Google researchers warns us in a recent paper, Hidden Technical Debt in Machine Learning Systems [1], dwarfs the initial development of production-grade results. Maintaining these systems over time is “difficult and expensive”, exposing ongoing requirements as technical debt. Like any kind of debt, these requirements must be serviced, with delays or lack of a systematic way to deal with the debt adding to the accrued cost.

ML code (small black box in middle) is but a fraction of total infrastructure required for machine learning; from [1]

The authors argue that ML installations incur larger than normal technical debt, since machine learning has to be deployed and maintained similar to traditional code, plus the nature of ML imposes additional and unique costs. Some of these sources of hidden cost include:

  • Complex models with indeterminate boundaries — ML learners are entangled with multiple feature sets; changing anything changes everything (CACE) say the authors
  • Costly data dependencies — learning is attuned to the input data; as that data changes, learners may need to be re-trained with generation anew of input feature sets; existing features may cease to be significant
  • Feedback loops and interactions — the best performing systems may depend on multiple learners or less than obvious feedback loops, again leading to CACE
  • Sub-optimal systems — piecing together multiple open source pieces with “glue code” or using multi-purpose toolkits can lead to code and architectures that are not performant
  • Configuration debt — set-up and workflows need to work as a system and consistently, but tuning and optimization are generally elusive to understand and measure
  • Infrastructure debt — efforts in creating standards, testing options, logging and monitoring, managing multiple models, etc., are likely all more demanding than traditional systems, and
  • A constantly changing world — the nature of knowledge is it is always under constant flux. We learn more, facts and data change, new perspectives need to be incorporated, all of which need to percolate through the learning process and then be supported by the infrastructure.

The authors of the paper do not really offer any solutions or guidelines to these challenges. However, highlighting the nature of these challenges — as this paper does well — should forewarn any enterprise considering its own machine learning initiative. These costs can only be managed by anticipating and planning for them, preferably supported by systematic and repeatable utilities and workflows.

I recommend a close read of this paper before budgeting your own efforts.

(Hat tip to Mohan Bavirisetty for posting the paper link on LinkedIn.)


[1] Sculley, D., Gary Holt, Daniel Golovin, Eugene Davydov, Todd Phillips, Dietmar Ebner, Vinay Chaudhary, Michael Young, Jean-François Crespo, and Dan Dennison, 2015. “Hidden Technical Debt in Machine Learning Systems.” In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, pp. 2494-2502.
Posted:February 8, 2016

AI3 PulseA Needed Focus on the Inputs to Machine Learners

Features are the inputs to machine learners. The outputs of machine learners are predictions of outcomes, based on an inferred (or “learned”) model or function. In image recognition, as an example, the inputs are the characteristics of pixels and those adjacent to them; the output may be a prediction there is an image representation of “cat”. In NLP, as another case, the input might be the text, title and URL of emails; the output may be a prediction of “spam”. If we treat all ML learners as black boxes, features are what is fed to the box, and predicted labels or structures are what comes out.

As I recently argued, the importance of features has been overlooked in comparison to the choice of machine learners or how to lower the costs and efforts of labeling and creating training sets and standards. The complete picture needs to include feature extraction, feature selection, and feature engineering.

A recent review paper helps redress this imbalance. Feature Selection: A Data Perspective [1], surveys and provides a comprehensive and well-organized overview of recent advances in feature selection research. According to the authors, Li et al., “the objectives of feature selection include: building simpler and more comprehensible models, improving data mining performance, and helping prepare, clean, and understand data.” The practical 73-page review is accompanied by an open-source feature selection library that consists of most of the popular feature selection algorithms covered in the review, and a comprehensive performance analysis of the methods and their results.

The first nine pages of the review are devoted to a broad, accessible overview. The intro provides a clear explanation of features and their role in feature selection. It also explains why the high-dimensionality of features is a challenge in its own right.

The bulk of the document is devoted to a discussion of the various methods used in feature selection, organized according to:

  • generic data
  • structure features
  • heterogeneous data, and
  • streaming data.

Each of the methods is characterized as to whether it is applicable to supervised or unsupervised learning. While I have used a different classification of the feature space, that does not affect the usefulness of Li et al.’s [1] approach. Also, in keeping with a review article, there are more than 11 pages of references containing nearly 150 citations.

The combined review nature of the paper also means that various methods have been reduced to a common symbol set, which is a handy way to relate available features to multiple learners. This common treatment enables the authors to create the open source repository, scikit-feast, written in Python and available from Github, that provides a library of 25 of the methods covered. A separate Web site presents some test datasets and performance results. Here is one example of many of the available results:

This paper deserves a permanent place on anyone’s resource shelf who has a serious interest in machine learning. I would not be surprised to see the authors’ organizational structure of feature selection methods become a standard. It is always a pleasure to encounter papers that are well-written, understandable and comprehensive. Great job!


[1] Jundong Li, Kewei Cheng, Suhang Wang, Fred Morstatter, Robert P. Trevino, Jiliang Tang, Huan Liu, 2016. “Feature Selection: A Data Perspective,” arXiv:1601.07996, 29 Jan 2016.
Posted:February 1, 2016

AI3 PulseA Great Introduction to ML and Its Roots

I have to admit the first I heard the title of Pedro Domingos‘ recent book, The Master Algorithm, I was off-put, similar to the way I react negatively to the singularity made famous by Ray Kurzweil. I don’t tend to buy into single answers or theories of everything.

But as a recent talk by Domingos at Google shows, he has much more insight to share about the roots and “tribes” associated with machine learning. If you are new to ML and want to learn more about the big picture underlying its main approaches and tenets, the hour spent watching this video will prove valuable:

The strength of the talk is to describe what Domingos calls the five “tribes” underlying machine learning and the lead researchers, premises and approaches underlying each:

  • Symbolists — based in logic, this approach attempts to model the composition of knowledge by inverting the deductive process
  • Connectionists — also known as neural networks or deep learning, this mindset is grounded most in trying to mimic how the brain actually works
  • Evolutionists — the biological evolution of life of mixing genes through reproduction as altered by mutations and cross-overs guides these genetic algorithms
  • Bayesians — since the world is uncertain, likely outcomes are guided by statistical probabilities, which also change as new evidence is constantly brought to bear
  • Anagolizers — this tribe attempts to reason by analogy by looking for similarities to examples or closely related factors.

You can also see the slides here to Domingos’ talk.

As Domingos emphasizes, each of these approaches has its applications, strengths and weaknesses. He posits there are shared aspects and generalities underlying all of these methods that can help point the way to perhaps more universal approaches, the master algorithm.

I have argued elsewhere about the importance of knowledge bases to recent AI breakthroughs more than algorithms, but ultimately, of course, specific calculation methods need to underpin any learning approach. Though I’m not convinced there is a “master” algorithm, there is also great value in understanding the premises and mindsets behind these main approaches to machine learning.

 

Posted by AI3's author, Mike Bergman Posted on February 1, 2016 at 11:53 am in Artificial Intelligence, Book Reviews, Pulse, Videos | Comments (0)
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