Posted:April 28, 2023

Living room overlookBusinesses Need to Swing Back to True Stakeholders

We have the good fortune to have a winter and summer property that we rent out on occasion. We began renting our place, using VRBO, shortly after buying it in 2011. At that time, we also had our own dedicated Web site to promote rentals, now abandoned. What was good about the timing at that point was that rental Web sites were being aggregated by entities like VRBO. Prior to that point, finding rentals in various parts of the globe was an onerous hit-or-miss task for vacationers. For owners, finding a consolidation point for advertising a property was also a gap. These interests aligned in the marketplace, with VRBO becoming a prominent agent to help overcome these limitations. VRBO is now owned by Expedia.

Yet, today, I am actively looking for a replacement to VRBO as our agent for rentals by an owner. This quest is despite the fact that, as an active Internet user since the beginning, with often more responsive Web interfaces over time, we have seen the benefits of better and more consolidated services. Unfortunately, with consolidation has also come monopolization, and what had previously been useful services to which we were willing to pay a reasonable rent have morphed into higher fees under the new overlord masters dictating to us rules, process, and rewards. We pass on their greed in higher rents and service charges to our renters.

We have been on VRBO for about a dozen years, and have witnessed two trends that we find unfortunate. First, there has been a steady encroachment of VRBO into fees and charges to both renters and owners. While there have been some advantages for VRBO to take on some of the onerous reporting and collection tasks formally the responsibility of the owner, that has also come at a price of fees (never announced in advance) unilaterally imposed. Further, VRBO holds our payments — sometimes received months in advance — until renters actually stay at the property, so VRBO gains rents on what should be our payments, not VRBO’s. In the unilateral arrangement imposed by VRBO, while our older annual fees have decreased somewhat, that basis has been supplanted by per rental fees that have zoomed the total payouts to VRBO. For renters, that has caused inflation in base rents, further exacerbated by additional fees charged to them as renters. To be sure, VRBO has also added new services for which VRBO deserves compensation and a profit. But VRBO unilaterally sets these rates and has chosen not to engage us owners as the supplier of inventory for what is right and fair. VRBO has shifted its role from a facilitating agent to a monopolistic master. Perhaps any unchecked profit-seeking entity would behave similarly.

In changing from agent to master, the VRBO Web site continues to get less useful to us as owners. Rather than consolidate pages (the original design was a multi-tab layout), functionality is now split and segregated across multiple menu options that force rigid but unintuitive work flows. These work flows are geared to direct us, as owners, to answer new qualifying questions about the uses and policies regarding our properties, many of which feel arbitrary and imposed by VRBO, not the marketplace. Aside from temporary pandemic requirements, all of my new property requirements have resulted from mandates by VRBO, and not from renters or local authorities. Further, not once have I been questioned or solicited by VRBO about these new policies or mandatory requirements, nor do I believe have any owners been so consulted, and we sometimes login to our property management Web site that has a new design or layout but without any prior notice or assistance in navigating the new reality. Who is driving this bus?

These same concerns about arbitrariness pertain to other aspects of the service, such as getting Premier status to obtain higher displays on rental listings or other acknowledgements. All criteria are unilaterally imposed by VRBO without input or inquiry. As an example of how one-sided this all is, there is not even a search function under the so-called owner Dashboard to get access to a FAQ or knowledge base without having to poke through unobvious submenus. In what appears to be by design, one can’t get access to a real human online, but also can not get access to useful digital information.

Truth is, from my perspective, we have seen way too much of this across major consumer-facing service providers in the last five- to ten years. My sense is this trend from one of supportive and facilitating agents to one of monopolizing masters has been accelerating in recent times. Like much that seems like it is careening off the rails, I think companies like VRBO may be headed for a comeuppance.

In this instance, we as rental owners are the sources of inventory for VRBO. Once we reached the point of consolidation for central lookup, renters and owners alike lost their ability to engage in free transaction. Yes, the transaction was made more efficient, but the basis of the transaction got “intermediated”, which is just a fancy way of saying hijacked.

There are only two ways to counteract this monopoly. One, we see new competitor entrants that break the monopoly, resulting in price and service competition. Or, two, either the buyers (renters) or suppliers (rental owners) refuse to be intermediated in the way being imposed. Unfortunately, that is nearly impossible without alternative agents.

Thus, here is my request: New entrepreneurs, please look to the manifest opportunities available to enter these markets and provide a fair and responsive agency service. There is no need to screw the pooch when a good walk would do just fine.

Posted by AI3's author, Mike Bergman Posted on April 28, 2023 at 9:27 am in Pulse, Site-related | Comments (0)
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Posted:February 22, 2023

Star formation in the Carina Nebula, courtesy of NASA, ESA, CSA, and STScI

This article posted today has some amazing quotes and proves another reason why the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is such an incredible innovation:

https://scitechdaily.com/massive-webb-space-telescope-discovery-defies-prior-understanding-of-the-universe/

(The Nature article preprint cited is amazing, too.)

Posted by AI3's author, Mike Bergman Posted on February 22, 2023 at 12:06 pm in Adaptive Innovation, Big Structure, Pulse | Comments (0)
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Posted:August 5, 2019

US EPA LogoFirst-ever EPA Paper Finally Gets Attention

Boy, talk about being a little bit ahead of the parade! The Scientific American blog by Robert McLachlan recently showcased a paper I wrote with Kan Chen and Dick Winter forty years ago [1]. The paper, “Carbon Dioxide from Fossil Fuels: Adapting to Uncertainty,” was the first commissioned by the US Environmental Protection Agency on global warming. The paper was one of the products from a major study called the Coal Technology Assessment (CTA) [2], for which I was then the project manager. The paper was drawn from the first position paper on global warming within the US Environmental Protection Agency [3], also prepared by the CTA. (I believe there had been earlier government reports at NOAA, but this was the first for the EPA.)

The Scientific American piece features some major quotes from the paper and gives it more attention than it ever received when released. The SA piece lauds our paper for having highlighted the tragedy of the commons nature of problems like global warming. While I think that angle is useful, I remember the paper more for its common-sense approach to policymaking for problems with both high degrees of uncertainty and great potential for adverse impact. The sad truth of the paper is that it received very little attention inside or outside the agency — in fact, MacLachlan notes it “bombed” — with only four contemporaneous citations.

I spent five years of my life working on the CTA, the last with my good friend Bob Dykes, and we produced what I think was some awfully good and often prescient work. We skewered the idea of the greater use of coal in industrial boilers, conducted the first net energy analysis of complete end-use energy trajectories, noted the importance of better conservation standards for homes and appliances, foresaw a near-term future of natural gas abundance, emphasized the importance of trace metals pollution from coal, rejected the idea of synfuels from coal ever being economic, and saw the most likely avenues for future coal use to lie in metallurgy and in well-controlled electric power plants. Unfortunately, most all of our dozen or so reports were suppressed by the agency because we pissed off either the Carter or Reagan administrations, over which our project study straddled. The energy crises of those times led to very strange politics and political reactions. I guess maybe some things never change.

Hearing of the treatment of our CO2 paper by SA has caused me to think about revisiting some of those old CTA findings. Our mandate for the Coal Technology Assessment was to “assess the technological, cultural, economic and social impacts of the greatly increased use of coal over the next 50 years,” to the year 2030. We are now 80% of the way through that forecast horizon, probably far enough along to judge how well we did. (Pretty well from my vantage point!) Maybe I can get to that appraisal before the forecast horizon is past.

BTW, you can also get the original paper outside the pay firewall. But, please: Do not let the subsequent story of no action and time lost depress you too much.


[1] K. Chen, R. C. Winter, and M. K. Bergman, “Carbon Dioxide from Fossil Fuels: Adapting to Uncertainty,” Energy Policy, vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 318–330, Dec. 1980.
[2] K. Chen, A. N. Christakis, R. S. Davidson, R. P. Hansen, and K. Kawamura, “An Integrated Approach to Coal-Based Energy Technology Assessment in the United States and the International Implications,” IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, vol. 8, no. 11, pp. 822–829, Nov. 1978.
[3] M. K. Bergman, “Atmospheric Pollution: Carbon Dioxide,” Strategic Analysis Group, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPA 600/8 80 003, Jul. 1980.

Posted by AI3's author, Mike Bergman Posted on August 5, 2019 at 8:54 am in Pulse, Site-related | Comments (0)
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Posted:July 24, 2019

AI3 Pulse

I would like to thank Andreas Blumauer of the Semantic Web Company and the SEMANTiCS Conference for their recent interview with me. The questions covered the waterfront of topics related to knowledge representation and semantic artificial intelligence. The emphasis was on my recent book, A Knowledge Representation Practionary, the polymath who stimulated that book, Charles Sanders Peirce, and our open-source KBpedia knowledge graph and base. 

Andreas, who conducted the interview, is always good at teasing out where people think the industry and technology are headed. This interview was no exception. Knowledge graphs and their emerging role in knowledge-based AI have been common themes across multiple recent conferences.

I’d also like to thank Alan Morrison for his keynote at the prior 2018 conference, and his kind mention of our work. Alan and Andreas are two of the most effective spokespeople around for the practical trends currently shaping our industry.

There are rumors that the SEMANTiCS conference may be coming to North America in 2020. Let’s hope the organizers see fit to continue to spread their wonderful meeting to our side of the pond.

You can see my interview in full here.

Posted:September 13, 2017

AI3 Pulse

KBpedia, a computable knowledge structure combining six major public knowledge bases, received a minor update today to version 1.51. This release makes some minor corrections and provides updated statistics. No material changes from version 1.50 released a month ago were made.

The KBpedia knowledge structure combines six (6) public knowledge bases – Wikipedia, Wikidata, OpenCyc, GeoNames, DBpedia and UMBEL – into an integrated whole. These core KBs are supplemented with mappings to more than a score of additional leading vocabularies. The entire KBpedia structure is computable, meaning it can be reasoned over and logically sliced-and-diced to produce training sets and reference standards for machine learning and data interoperability. KBpedia greatly reduces the time and effort traditionally required for knowledge-based artificial intelligence (KBAI) tasks. KBpedia was first released in October 2016, though it has been under active development for more than six years. KBpedia is sponsored by Cognonto Corporation.

Posted by AI3's author, Mike Bergman Posted on September 13, 2017 at 1:31 pm in KBpedia, Ontologies, Pulse, Semantic Web | Comments (0)
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